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ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP OF EUROPE'S DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE PROCESS WITH GROWTH, UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION

Year 2021, Issue: 6, 1064 - 1085, 25.08.2021
https://doi.org/10.47994/usbad.936715

Abstract

The demographic change process experienced in Europe affects the age dynamics of the population due to low birth and death ration in the last fifty years. The population growth rate, the young dependent population and the working age population have decreased due to low birth ratio, on the other hand the elderly dependent population has increased due to low mortality ratio. In addition to this change process in Europe, the Covid-19 epidemic also caused a further decrease in birth rations and an increase in death ration. Although it is difficult to predict how the epidemic will affect demographic change indicators, this change process in Europe has an effect on economic variables. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship of the demographic change process in Europe with economic growth, unemployment and inflation. Panel data analysis was used as a method. In this framework, three models were estimated and economic indicators were included as dependent variables in each model. According to the analysis results, 1 percent increase in the elderly dependent and working age population reduces inflation, growth and unemployment, 1 percent increase in the young dependent population increases inflation and unemployment, but decreases economic growth, and 1 percent increase in the population growth rate reduces inflation and economic growth, but decrease unemployment.

References

  • Aksoy, Y., Basso, H. S., Smith, R. P. & Grasl, T. (2015). Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends. Banco De Espana, Documentos de Trabajo 1528, 1-66.
  • Akyıldız, N. A. (2020). Evaluation of Elderly Population Policies in Development Plans in the Context of Social Sustainability. International Journal of Recent Advances in Multidisciplinary Research 7(3), 5653-5661.
  • Avdeev, A., Eremenko, T., Festy, P., Gaymu, J., Le Bouteillec, N. & Springer, S. (2011). Populations and Demographic Trends of European Countries 1980-2010. Population 66(1), 23-59.
  • Batey, P. & Madden, M. (1999). The Employment Impact of Demographic Change: a Regional Analysis. Regional Science 78, 69-87.
  • Biagi, F. & Lucifora, C. (2008). Demographic and Education Effects on Unemployment in Europe. Labour Economics 15(5), 1076-1101.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. & Finlay, J. E. (2008). Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia. Program on the Global Demography of Aging. Working Paper Series 40, 1-30.
  • Bloom, D. E. & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic Translations and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review 12(3), 419-455.
  • Crenshaw, E. M., Ameen, A. Z. & Christenson, M. (1997). Population Dynamics and Economic Development: Age-Specific Poulation Growth Rates and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, 1965 to 1990. American Sociological Review 62(6), 974-984.
  • DESTATIS. (2020). Births in 2020: Until September 6, 155 Babies Less Compared with 2019. Erişim Adresi: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/12/PE20_510_122.html Erişim Tarihi: 21.03.2021.
  • European Committee. (2020). EU Annual Regional and local Barometer, 79-81, Erişim Adresi: https://cor.europa.eu/en/our-work/EURegionalBarometerDocs/4370-Barometer%20optimized.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 21.03.2021.
  • European Commission. (2020). The Impact of demographic change. European Commission Report 4, Erişim Adresi: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/demography_report_2020_n.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 21.03.2021.
  • Fuchs, M. (2016). Unemployment Decline in East Germany: the Role of Demography. Rev Reg Res 36, 145–168.
  • Goldstein, J. R. & Lee, R. D. (2020). Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics. NBER, Working Paper 27043, 1-2.
  • Huang, W. H., Lin, Y. J. & Lee, H. F. (2019). Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan. Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal 11(22), 1-13.
  • Hsu, M., Liao, P. J. & Zhao, M. (2018). Demographic Change and Long Term Growth in China: Past Developments and the Future Challenge of Aging. Review of Development Economics 22(3), 928-952.
  • INSEE. (2021a). Demography Report 2020. Published on, 19/01/2021, Erişim Adresi: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/5018534, Erişim Tarihi: 21.03.2021.
  • INSEE. (2021b). Fertility Has Declined Less in Large Cities. Published on 009/02/2021, Erişim Adresi: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/5345325, Erişim Tarihi: 21.03.2021.
  • ISTAT. (2020). Annual Report 2020, 16-17. Erişim Adresi: https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/09/Annual-Report-2020_Summary.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 15.03.2021.
  • İlgili, Ö. & Gökçe Kutsal, Y. (2020). Impact of Covid-19 Among the Elderly Population. Turkish Journal of Geriatrics 23(4), 419.
  • Jaffrı, A. A., Farrooq, F. & Munır, F. (2016). Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation in Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review 54(1), 1-14.
  • Juselius, M. & Takats, E. (2015). Can Demography Affect Inflation and Monetary Policy?. Bank For International Settlements 485, 1-35.
  • Liu, Y. & Westelius, N. (2016). The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japon. IMF, Working Paper 16(237), 1-16.
  • Maestas, N., Mullen, K. J. & Powell, D. (2016). The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity. NBER, Working Paper Series 22452, 1-53.
  • Mukherjee, A., Bajaj, P. & Gulati, S. (2019). Demographic Changes and Their Macroeconomic Ramifications for India. Reserve Bank of India, Monthly Bulletin, 25-40.
  • Ozimek, A. (2017). Population Growth and Inflation. Moody’s Analytics, Erişim Adresi: https://www.economy.com/getlocal?q=a7c139c0-2b8c-4abf-9b65-bd8b11392939&app=eccafile Erişim Tarihi: 23.03.2021.
  • Prskawetz, A., Fent, T., Barthel, W., Crespo-Cuaresma, J., Lindh, T., Malmberg, B. & Halvarsso, M. (2007). The Relationship Between Demographic Change and Economic Growth in the EU.
  • Institut für Demographie der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Forschungsbericht 32, 9.
  • Park, D. & Shin, K. (2011). Impact of Population Aging on Asia’s Future Growth. Asian Development Bank, Working Paper Series 281, 1-21.
  • Pohnpattanapaisankul, K. (2019). The Impact of Demographics on Inflation in Thailand. Applied Economics Journal 26(2), 1-21.
  • Song, S. (2013). Demographic Changes and Economic Growth Empirical Evidence from Asia. Honors Projects, Paper 121, 1-35.
  • Tatoğlu, Y. F. (2016). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi/Stata Uygulamalı. İstanbul: Beta Basım.
  • Yoon, J. W., Kim, J. & Lee, J. (2014). Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy. International Monetary Fund 14(210), 1-23.
  • Weiske, S. (2019). Population Growth, the Natural Rate of Interest, and Inflation. German Council of Economic Expert Working Paper 01/03/2019, Erişim Adresi: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/193677/1/1067607382.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2021.

AVRUPA’NIN DEMOGRAFİK DEĞİŞİM SÜRECİNİN BÜYÜME, İŞSİZLİK VE ENFLASYONLA İLİŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ

Year 2021, Issue: 6, 1064 - 1085, 25.08.2021
https://doi.org/10.47994/usbad.936715

Abstract

Avrupa’da son elli yıl içerisinde düşük doğum ve ölüm oranları sebebiyle yaşanan demografik değişim süreci nüfusun yaş dinamiklerini etkilemektedir. Düşük doğum oranları sebebiyle nüfus artış hızı, genç bağımlı nüfus ve çalışma çağındaki nüfus azalmış, düşük ölüm oranları sebebiyle yaşlı bağımlı nüfusta artış gerçekleşmiştir. Avrupa’da yaşanan bu değişim sürecine ek olarak Covid-19 salgını da doğum oranlarının daha da azalmasına ve ölüm oranlarında ise artışa neden olmuştur. Salgının demografik değişim göstergelerine ne kadar etki edeceğini şimdiden tahmin etmek zor olsa da Avrupa’da yaşanan bu değişim sürecinin ekonomik değişkenler üzerinde etkisi bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Avrupa’da yaşanan demografik değişim sürecinin ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik ve enflasyon ile ilişkisini analiz etmektir. Yöntem olarak panel veri analizinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada üç model tahmin edilmiş ve her bir modelde ekonomik göstergeler bağımlı değişken olarak yer almıştır. Bağımsız değişkenler ise demografik değişim göstergeleridir. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen bulgulara göre yaşlı bağımlı ve çalışma çağında nüfustaki %1’lik artış enflasyonu, büyümeyi ve işsizliği azalttığı, genç bağımlı nüfustaki %1’lik artış enflasyonu ve işsizliği artırdığı ancak ekonomik büyümeyi azalttığı, nüfus artış hızındaki %1’lik artış ise enflasyonu ve ekonomik büyümeyi arttırdığı ancak işsizliği azalttığı tespit edilmiştir.

References

  • Aksoy, Y., Basso, H. S., Smith, R. P. & Grasl, T. (2015). Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends. Banco De Espana, Documentos de Trabajo 1528, 1-66.
  • Akyıldız, N. A. (2020). Evaluation of Elderly Population Policies in Development Plans in the Context of Social Sustainability. International Journal of Recent Advances in Multidisciplinary Research 7(3), 5653-5661.
  • Avdeev, A., Eremenko, T., Festy, P., Gaymu, J., Le Bouteillec, N. & Springer, S. (2011). Populations and Demographic Trends of European Countries 1980-2010. Population 66(1), 23-59.
  • Batey, P. & Madden, M. (1999). The Employment Impact of Demographic Change: a Regional Analysis. Regional Science 78, 69-87.
  • Biagi, F. & Lucifora, C. (2008). Demographic and Education Effects on Unemployment in Europe. Labour Economics 15(5), 1076-1101.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. & Finlay, J. E. (2008). Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia. Program on the Global Demography of Aging. Working Paper Series 40, 1-30.
  • Bloom, D. E. & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic Translations and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review 12(3), 419-455.
  • Crenshaw, E. M., Ameen, A. Z. & Christenson, M. (1997). Population Dynamics and Economic Development: Age-Specific Poulation Growth Rates and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, 1965 to 1990. American Sociological Review 62(6), 974-984.
  • DESTATIS. (2020). Births in 2020: Until September 6, 155 Babies Less Compared with 2019. Erişim Adresi: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/12/PE20_510_122.html Erişim Tarihi: 21.03.2021.
  • European Committee. (2020). EU Annual Regional and local Barometer, 79-81, Erişim Adresi: https://cor.europa.eu/en/our-work/EURegionalBarometerDocs/4370-Barometer%20optimized.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 21.03.2021.
  • European Commission. (2020). The Impact of demographic change. European Commission Report 4, Erişim Adresi: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/demography_report_2020_n.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 21.03.2021.
  • Fuchs, M. (2016). Unemployment Decline in East Germany: the Role of Demography. Rev Reg Res 36, 145–168.
  • Goldstein, J. R. & Lee, R. D. (2020). Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics. NBER, Working Paper 27043, 1-2.
  • Huang, W. H., Lin, Y. J. & Lee, H. F. (2019). Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan. Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal 11(22), 1-13.
  • Hsu, M., Liao, P. J. & Zhao, M. (2018). Demographic Change and Long Term Growth in China: Past Developments and the Future Challenge of Aging. Review of Development Economics 22(3), 928-952.
  • INSEE. (2021a). Demography Report 2020. Published on, 19/01/2021, Erişim Adresi: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/5018534, Erişim Tarihi: 21.03.2021.
  • INSEE. (2021b). Fertility Has Declined Less in Large Cities. Published on 009/02/2021, Erişim Adresi: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/5345325, Erişim Tarihi: 21.03.2021.
  • ISTAT. (2020). Annual Report 2020, 16-17. Erişim Adresi: https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/09/Annual-Report-2020_Summary.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 15.03.2021.
  • İlgili, Ö. & Gökçe Kutsal, Y. (2020). Impact of Covid-19 Among the Elderly Population. Turkish Journal of Geriatrics 23(4), 419.
  • Jaffrı, A. A., Farrooq, F. & Munır, F. (2016). Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation in Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review 54(1), 1-14.
  • Juselius, M. & Takats, E. (2015). Can Demography Affect Inflation and Monetary Policy?. Bank For International Settlements 485, 1-35.
  • Liu, Y. & Westelius, N. (2016). The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japon. IMF, Working Paper 16(237), 1-16.
  • Maestas, N., Mullen, K. J. & Powell, D. (2016). The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity. NBER, Working Paper Series 22452, 1-53.
  • Mukherjee, A., Bajaj, P. & Gulati, S. (2019). Demographic Changes and Their Macroeconomic Ramifications for India. Reserve Bank of India, Monthly Bulletin, 25-40.
  • Ozimek, A. (2017). Population Growth and Inflation. Moody’s Analytics, Erişim Adresi: https://www.economy.com/getlocal?q=a7c139c0-2b8c-4abf-9b65-bd8b11392939&app=eccafile Erişim Tarihi: 23.03.2021.
  • Prskawetz, A., Fent, T., Barthel, W., Crespo-Cuaresma, J., Lindh, T., Malmberg, B. & Halvarsso, M. (2007). The Relationship Between Demographic Change and Economic Growth in the EU.
  • Institut für Demographie der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Forschungsbericht 32, 9.
  • Park, D. & Shin, K. (2011). Impact of Population Aging on Asia’s Future Growth. Asian Development Bank, Working Paper Series 281, 1-21.
  • Pohnpattanapaisankul, K. (2019). The Impact of Demographics on Inflation in Thailand. Applied Economics Journal 26(2), 1-21.
  • Song, S. (2013). Demographic Changes and Economic Growth Empirical Evidence from Asia. Honors Projects, Paper 121, 1-35.
  • Tatoğlu, Y. F. (2016). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi/Stata Uygulamalı. İstanbul: Beta Basım.
  • Yoon, J. W., Kim, J. & Lee, J. (2014). Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy. International Monetary Fund 14(210), 1-23.
  • Weiske, S. (2019). Population Growth, the Natural Rate of Interest, and Inflation. German Council of Economic Expert Working Paper 01/03/2019, Erişim Adresi: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/193677/1/1067607382.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2021.
There are 33 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Neslihan Burgaz 0000-0001-8301-2792

Emin Ahmet Kaplan 0000-0002-4808-8529

Publication Date August 25, 2021
Acceptance Date July 15, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Issue: 6

Cite

APA Burgaz, N., & Kaplan, E. A. (2021). AVRUPA’NIN DEMOGRAFİK DEĞİŞİM SÜRECİNİN BÜYÜME, İŞSİZLİK VE ENFLASYONLA İLİŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Akademi Dergisi(6), 1064-1085. https://doi.org/10.47994/usbad.936715

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